As China and India become the newest suburbs of the high-speed global village, and the boundaries between the real and virtual worlds grow ever more porous, what does the future hold for business?
It’s that time of year when the trendspotters tell us where we are heading. As we move into the 21st century we face a world of extremes: the virtual world versus the real world; us versus them; freedom versus structure; global versus local; urban versus rural. “With every trend there is a counter-trend,” says Kristina Dryza, a consumer trends expert. “The trick is to be comfortable within that fluidity.”
On the one hand, more and more of our lives are played out on the public stage – less and less is private, our public faces are consistently on, and there is pressure to be an extension of our work in our personal lives. This ties in to what Dryza describes as the new narcissism. “You are your online profile,” she says. “At the same time, conversely, each person is their own community: we are retreating into our houses, further into ourselves. We are developing a culture of individualism where the community doesn’t exist.”
Bubble trouble
Antisocial behaviour is the new normal, according to US trendspotters Marian Salzman and Ira Matathia in their new book Next. Now: Trends for the Future. They believe we are increasingly interested in creating private, personalised environments: our own little bubbles where we can read or listen to our iPods while shutting out the rest of humanity. “We have taken privacy and autonomy to a new level,” says Salzman, executive vice president and chief marketing officer of JWT.
In this time of ambiguity and change, the edges of our lives are getting blurred. The lines that used to clearly define gender, age and family roles are less distinct, as are the borders that exist between fake and real, private and public, celebrity and anonymity, virtual and actual, local and international. “The worlds of the real and the virtual are evolving, crossing and blurring in complex economic, political, social and personal spheres,” says Matathia, managing partner of NoFormula. “New laws and codes of conduct will try to keep pace and make the lines more clear, or we may simply come to accept that we live in parallel universes.”
At home, the lines are muddying as many parents are now reluctant to say no to their children and be perceived as figures of authority. Instead, they prefer to be seen as friends and peers. “The boundaries are porous,” says Dryza. “And while the outside world is fraught with danger, many children grow up in the virtual world – the computer has become the space they are given to roam.”
Young adults reluctant to take responsibility for their lives often hover half in, half out of the family home. Salzman and Matathia have identified a new stage: adultescence. Many of those in their late teens and early twenties are ‘helicopter’ kids, they say. It’s an international phenomenon. In Italy, the stay-at-homes are called mammismos, in Germany, they’re called nesthockers. And it looks as if they’re here to stay. Since 1990, Italy has charted a 50 per cent increase in mammones – children who won’t eat anywhere but at home.
Fads come and go, but trends last. When Salzman and Matathia published their first book, Next: Trends for the Near Future in 1996, they extolled the benefits of the internet, but found it difficult to persuade corporations to take it seriously. It was seen as a slow-paced novelty for consumers, rather than technology for big businesses. They also foresaw a United States of Europe that would challenge US superiority.
Go East
Salzman believes globalisation will be the next overarching trend in the business world. At its heart lies the power of Chindia. “China and India possess the weight and dynamism to transform the global economy,” she says. “Their growth will disrupt economies in ways we cannot begin to imagine. Smart, cheap labour will turn the US into the Old World, and today’s exuberance will become angst about environmental ruination.”
In the globalised world, explains Salzman, the whole world exchanges ideas, fads, products – even insults. It’s a physically and virtually connected, high-speed global village where we experience time and space faster. The lines between local, national and international are less distinct. In all areas of our lives, from religion and education to culture, people everywhere will inform and influence each other. The world shrinks, borders open, tensions rise. “We are at a crossroads with even more to be afraid of than we’d imagined,” says Salzman. “Suddenly, competitors and co-conspirators are everywhere, influences are everywhere and trends originate everywhere.”
Dryza believes globalisation is causing many people to feel a sense of loss of control. “We don’t know if our countries stand or speak on our behalf, if our voices are being heard,” she says. She sees the trend moving towards new local and regional interest: “People are losing a sense of their roots and they want them back. There are so many external influences in our lives. We’re dipping in and out and losing the sense of a strong anchor, so we think: ‘These are my roots: I play in this world occasionally, but I always come back.’”
As life moves faster, Dryza sees us looking for simple pleasures: slowing down to eat, rediscovering the art of farming, the harvest cycle and slow living. Quest – the internal journey towards self – is a word she believes we will hear more of. “It is the story, rather than our material possessions, that will matter to us,” she says. “We are very much in a soul-searching phase. We want to be anchored and are moving from being a ‘doing’ culture to a ‘being’ culture where we’ll need to be reeducated as to how to rest.”
The people of China and India may be able to help us here: taking time out through meditation and spirituality has been a fundamental part of their cultures for thousands of years and may well be the key to their success.
Êtes-vous tendances?
Les modes vont et viennent, mais les tendances restent. Dans leur nouveau livre US trendspotters, Marian Salzman et Ira Matathia Salzman suggèrent que la globalisation sera la nouvelle tendance dominante. A la base: le pouvoir de ‘Chindia’. “La Chine et l’Inde ont le poids et le dynamisme pour transformer l’économie globale,” disent-ils. “Leur développement perturbera les économies d’une façon que nous ne pouvons encore imaginer.”
Dans le monde globalisé, les frontières entre local, national et international sont moins distinctes. Le monde rétrécit, les frontières s’ouvrent, les tensions montent. “Nous sommes face à la croisée des chemins, avec des perspectives plus effrayantes que celles que nous avions pu imaginer,” affirme Salzman. “Tout à coup, les concurrents et les conspirateurs sont partout et les tendances fusent de toutes parts.”
Kristina Dryza, experte dans les tendances marketing consommateurs, pense que les effets de la globalisation sur les gens vont jusqu’à la sensation de perte de contrôle. “Les gens ne savent plus si leur propre pays se positionne ou parle en leur nom, si leurs voix sont entendues. ”
Face au flux toujours plus rapide de la vie, Dryza nous voit explorer la voie de la lenteur. “Nous sommes beaucoup plus dans une phase de recherche spirituelle. Nous recherchons un ancrage et nous évoluons de la culture du ‘faire’ vers la culture de ‘l’être’, où l’on va devoir nous re-éduquer à prendre du recul.”
Les Chinois et les Indiens vont peut-être pouvoir nous être utiles dans ce cas-ci : prendre de la distance à travers la méditation et la spiritualité a toujours constitué la base fondamentale de leurs cultures depuis des milliers d’années.
Trends for the Future, de Marian Salzman et Ira Matathia, est publié chez Palgrave Macmillan
Globalisering en trends
Modegrillen komen en gaan, maar trends blijven bestaan. In hun nieuwe boek voorzien Amerikaanse trendspotters Marian Salzman en Ira Matathia Salzman dat globalisering de volgende overkoepelende trend wordt. Centraal staat de macht van ‘Chindia’. “China en India bezitten het gewicht en de dynamiek om de wereldeconomie te veranderen”, zo schrijven zij. “Hun groei zal de economische kaarten volledig herverdelen.”
In de geglobaliseerde wereld worden de lijnen tussen lokaal, nationaal en internationaal dunner. De wereld krimpt, grenzen vervagen, spanningen nemen toe. “We bevinden ons op een kruispunt met meer dat ons angstig maakt dan we ooit hadden kunnen bedenken”, aldus Salzman. “Plots zijn er overal concurrenten en samenzweerders en ontstaan alom trends.”
Kristina Dryza, waarnemer van consumptietrends, gelooft dat globalisering ervoor zorgt dat mensen hun houvast verliezen. “We weten niet meer of ons land het voor ons opneemt en of onze stem wel wordt gehoord”, zo schrijft ze.
Naarmate we sneller leven, gaan we volgens Dryza ook de geneugten van langzamer leven meer waarderen. “We bevinden ons in een geestelijke zoekfase. We willen verankerd zijn en evolueren van een doe-cultuur naar een zijncultuur, waar we moeten worden heropgevoed in tot rust komen.”
De mensen van China en India kunnen ons daarbij helpen: tijd nemen voor meditatie en spiritualiteit is sinds duizenden jaren een fundamenteel onderdeel van hun culturen.
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